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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."