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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.