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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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